Juneau, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

701
FXAK67 PAJK 161749 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
849 AM AKST Tue Dec 16 2025

.UPDATE...
All Winter Weather products have been allowed to expire.

Update to the 18z Aviation discussion below:
As a low steers showers into the Panhandle this Tuesday morning,
we are seeing a wide range of categories, from VFR along the
northern coast and PAGY, to IFR from CIGS and SN in the Icy Strait
Corridor into the Central Panhandle, and MVFR CIGS and RA in the
southern area. For areas seeing snow, we anticipate conditions to
slowly improve through Tuesday as showers break apart. So while
VFR becomes more widespread, SHSN will still hold the potential to
diminish to IFR briefly through Tuesday afternoon in the Icy
Strait Corridor. Tuesday night precip starts to come to an end and
CIGS lift to VFR, with higher confidence in VFR for areas north
of Sumner Strait. Sumner Strait south to Dixon Entrance likely
holds on to MVFR CIGS AoB 1500ft.

Have highlighted LLWS for PAYA from stout northeast winds of 35
to 45 knots near 2000ft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...

SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

 - Cold temperatures continue, with very cold wind chills near
   White Pass.

 - Gusty outflow winds continue down Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage,
   and near Point Couverden, with occasional gusts in Downtown
   Juneau.

 - Snow and snow showers will continue through tonight. Precip
   slowly diminishes from north to south tomorrow.

 - Drier, colder, and sunnier weather is looking likely later
   this week.

SHORT TERM.../ through Tuesday night / A wrap up of much of the
fun that has been occurring for the last few days, with the
heavier snow aspect tapering off. The complex low in the central
gulf will continue to push showers onshore over panhandle Tuesday
and Tuesday night, although, the majority of the activity in the
near future will be Tuesday morning. A low in the NE Pacific
Ocean about 600 nm SW of Haida Gwaii will be moving to and through
Haida Gwaii Tuesday evening. Think most of the energy will stay
south of the panhandle, and just graze the southern panhandle.

For Tuesday, snow showers from bands of showers will drop a couple
more inches of snow, and if the showers train the amounts could be
higher. Expect that winter products will expire on time this
morning.

Gusty northerly outflow and the cold air spilling to the northern
panhandle is anticipated to persist through the day, and head out
through Icy Strait and Cross Sound.

LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, a low will continue
to remain over the southern portion of the Gulf of Alaska. This
low will linger before ejecting inland Thursday. While this low
ejects inland, outflow conditions are expected to persist for the
Inner Channels with at least gales continuing for places such as
Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage. Although some local areas could
potentially reach storm force winds again such as Point Couverden.
As the low ejects inland, the cold air will work its way south
towards the southern panhandle bringing temperatures down again.
With the dropping temperatures, precipitation is expected to
return to snow before drying out for the end of the week. Places
like Prince of Wales Island and Ketchikan could see up to 2 to 4
inches of snow. Farther north, temperatures will drop as well from
where they have been down to teen and single digits for daytime
highs. Wind chills though are expected to be well below zero with
the ongoing outflow winds especially for the Haines and Skagway
areas. For the central and southern panhandles, temperatures are
expected to drop to the teens and 20s with overnight lows dropping
into the teens and single digits. Areas that are sheltered from
the winds could potentially see colder temperatures such as the
Mendenhall Valley. Headed into the weekend and start of next week,
below normal cold temperatures are expected to continue although
nothing near all time record breaking cold. The next potential for
precipitation looks to be sometime next week when a low returns
to the northern gulf. But there is decent amount of ensemble
uncertainty this far out.

AVIATION...Widespread MVFR conditions are present across the southern panhandle
this morning, varying conditions in the central panhandle, and brief
localized IFR conditions in the southern section of the Icy Strait
corridor & Sitka due to snow. Conversely, the far northern panhandle
is staying mostly VFR with strong northerly winds. Across the
panhandle, conditions are expected to slowly moderate to upper end
MVFR later this afternoon as precipitation decreases. The strong
northerly and northeasterly winds will persist through Lynn Canal
and the northern panhandle through late tonight.

Confidence is moderate in persistent MVFR conditions over the outer
coast and southern inner channels through the evening due to
lingering instability showers and low stratus, with high confidence
that areas in the northern panhandle will stay mostly VFR. VFR
conditions are expected to return to the entire icy strait corridor
overnight.

MARINE...
Outside: Broad complex area of low pressure over the Gulf of
Alaska weakening through the next 48 hours. Expect winds across
the gulf to weaken Tuesday. The Yukon high is expected to
strengthen into Wed, So outflow winds across the NE gulf are
expected to strengthen again to gale force by Wednesday with
freezing spray near outflow areas possible again. Seas remain high
tonight with around 20 ft combined seas being reported (with a S
swell to 15 ft. 13 sec period). Gradual improving trend for seas
over the next few days as the S swell subsides to 10 ft Tuesday
and then down to 5 ft by Wednesday. Combined seas expected to
subside to 8 ft by Wednesday except near outflow areas that could
see seas up to 15 ft in some areas due to the strong winds there.

Inside:  The arctic boundary is continuing to make marine
forecasts in the inner channels difficult. That boundary is
currently around Sumner Strait over to north of Sitka. To the
north of that boundary strong outflow winds prevail with freezing
spray (some of it heavy in the far north), and periods of snow
reducing visibility to a few miles at times. These conditions are
expected to continue (except for the snow which should be ending
Tuesday) for the north through mid week and possibly into next
weekend at least. A chance of a minor weakening in the outflow
Tuesday afternoon and evening, but it will only reduce winds
around 10 to 15 kt at most before coming back just as strong as
previously seen Tuesday night. South of the boundary south winds
prevail especially tonight with winds up to 20 to 30 kt expected
in some areas before diminishing into Tuesday. Visibility is also
better as most of the precipitation is rain rather than snow. Main
concern for the south is how fast the arctic boundary moves south
over the next several days and switches the southerly winds to a
northerly and bringing colder weather. Expect southern Chatham and
Sumner to switch to the north around Tuesday time period while
the Clarence strait might wait until Wednesday or Thursday before
switching to the N.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ321-322-
     325.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ327.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-031-053-643-644-651-663-664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032>034-641-642-652-661-662-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Bezenek

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